How good is Adrian Gonzalez?

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In 62 games, Adrian Gonzalez has a line of .254/.331/.442 against
American League teams.  Now, that could be due to pitching Gonzalez has
rarely faced, or it could be due to the fact that the AL is simply
stronger than the NL, and has been in the years that Gonzalez has been
a player in the National League.  I eliminated the games in which
Gonzalez was with the Rangers because it was so long ago, and he was so
young, that it really isn’t fair to hold it against him.

Gonzalez also struggles with the breaking stuff, at least to a small
extent.  And a move to the AL would only force Adrian to see more
sliders and curves coming his way.  His “wSL/c” is -1.16, and his
“wCB/C” is -0.83.  Both sub-par, but neither should be looked into too much
as even Albert Pujols struggles a tad with the curve ball.  But a
healthy dose of these two pitches will be seen more in the AL, if that
is in fact, a fact (that fastballs are thrown more often in the NL).

I mention this because Gonzalez has been rumored as a possible
acquisition for the Red Sox.  And I am a bit wary as to how a
transition from the weaker NL West to the superior AL East will effect
Gonzalez’s production.

Getting him out of Petco will no doubt allow people to see what kind
of player he is.  Because Petco supresses every hitters power.  And I
mean every hitter.  His career line at home is an unimpressive
(for a 1B) .260/.350/.443.  But on the road, now that is a different
story.  Gonzo away from home has hit .293/.362/.552.  That my friends,
is impressive.   Seeing how a player will generally find comfort at
home, it shows just how much of an impact Petco has on a hitters
numbers.  Gonzalez on the road is simply a superstar, while at home, he
is average.

Fenway would be kind to him, very kind.  50 percent of his fly balls
to the outfield have been hit to left and center field.  Something that
would most likely give him great numbers, assuming the quality of
opponent does not get in the way that much (AL vs. NL).

As for his defense, it may be slightly overrated if the metrics are
accurate.  I have heard “best defensive 1B” in the game, and things of
that nature.  But none of the metrics seem to suggest that.  His +/-
the last three seasons is not ranked in the top ten.  And his UZR is
okay, but nothing great.  So anyone that believes in these metrics, as
I do to some extent, may see a guy that is a capable defender, but far
from great.

Again, I say all this because Gonzalez may be on the move.  And if
so, he will probably have to deal with more breaking stuff.  But how
will he adjust?  Will the additional men on base in a real big league
lineup increase his performance?  Will he use the wall as much as we
think he can?

There is little doubt that Gonzo would perform well in the AL East.  I am just unsure how well…

1 Comment

A deal for Gonzalez would have worked great for the Sox, especially since some of the talks also included Heath Bell. But overall, I think getting Victor Martinez is the better deal.
– Nick

http://braicabosox.mlblogs.com/

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