Mariano Rivera is arguably, and most likely, the best closer in baseball history.  So it is natural to wonder why he would struggle in games that have the score knotted up.  Which means the game is still very much unsettled.  Actually the odds state, it is much more unsettled then coming in with a lead.  So the intensity is there, the pressure that every close game consists of IS there.  So why has Rivera had "struggles" in these situations, but not in every other situation throughout his career as a "lights-out" reliever. 

     According to BaseballReference's "Clutch Stats" category, Rivera has been great, relatively speaking, in every aspect of a game, except in a tie game.  Now this has been explored by other bloggers/writers, so the topic is nothing new.  But adding another failure in one of these situations makes it that much more intriguing to us as baseball enthusiasts, or whatever one wants to call us.  Why can't Mariano Rivera, whom I believe is the greatest closer of all time, succeed in a tie game?  There must be something to it.  And I think it is safe to believe that it could very well be psychological.  We always hear about how closers have much more adrenaline running through their veins when they come in to protect a lead, rather than to "protect" a tie.  And I don't doubt that it is different.  But it seems to me that a tie game should have much intensity to go along with it as well.  Because if I am Mariano Rivera coming into a 2-2 game in the top of the ninth, with the home crowd going nuts in the Bronx, then I am feeling the intensity.  I guess that I would have to experience the situation to know if what I just said had any definite accuracy, but I would think it would be pretty crazy in a tie game, knowing that every pitch is even closer to a loss than in a save situation. 

     But whatever the reason is, this I cannot get on the manager for...Whether it was Torre, or now Girardi.  I cannot argue with going to Rivera in a tie ballgame.  Even with the success of the Yankee bullpen this season, Rivera is still the best option in any situation if the teams needs outs (The bullpen is now 9th in ERA in the AL by the way, but it was having success for a while there).  Anyway, there is no Joba Chamberlain out there now.  Rivera is the best option, period.  If Joba were out there, then they would be using him before Rivera, just as they did in Save situations.  And I am not advocating that Joba should be there, making him a starter was the best move for the long run.  But IF he was there, then they would go to him first. 

     In Rivera's career, opponents have a line that looks like this during a tie game:  .248/.318/.349.  So from that we see that Rivera gives up more hits, and walks more batters.  However, opponents still hit with almost no power.  So it isn't like Rivera has given up a bunch of homers when he arrives during a game that is "even" on the scoreboard.  His control seems to disappear a little, but he still has 155 K's in 152 innings, which is impressive.  In 2008, Rivera has been terrible in the "tie game."  Thirteen appearences, an opponents OPS of .973, which is great, if one was the opponent.  And he has been struggling the past few years in the same situation, not so much last season, but he struggled mightily in 2006.  But Rivera has made 36 appearences in these situations from 2006-2008, which is roughly 36 innings I would imagine.  The reason relievers can be so sporadic with their performances, is because of the small sample sizes.  A 60-inning closer has less time to redeem himself if he struggles early, and so called "luck" comes into play more often in a small sample as well.  However, that works both ways as a closer can start off great, and have that so called "luck" favor him more.  But should Girardi cease to use Rivera in Save situations because of a 36 inning sample?  Even though it isn't as if he has some incredible set up man waiting out in the pen.  Or should he say to himself, "Rivera has been capable enough in tie games during his career, and he is the best option I have in any situation the game presents." 

     I am not denying that Rivera isn't quite the pitcher when he comes in during a tie game, but I will backup using him in these situations with the current crop of relievers that the Yankees have.  There are some having good seasons, but none of them are Mariano Rivera.  So whatever the reason is that Rivera has been struggling, he is still the best option in a tie game, at least I believe.  And the next time the Yankees are in this situation, I would go to him if needed, simply because he is the best option out there.     

     It is pretty clear that the Angels are the best team in baseball right now.  In fact, it is close to definite.  But they aren't so good that they will win 11 of 13 in a 4 week span against the Red Sox and Yankees, with any consistency.  They happen to be playing out of their mind right now.  Adding Teixera gave the Angels favoritism amongst most of us, but I still thought that they would have a few offensive struggles, and I still believe they will.  They aren't going to be beating up on good teams, this badly, for the rest of the year.  But the point of the Teixera trade was that the Angels became an above average offense.  And an above average offense to go along with a very good pitching staff, is well, a formula for a World Series appearence, and win.  This actually reminds me of the 2004 Red Sox.  I know they won the Wild Card, and weren't running away with the division like the Angels are, but that was because of the variables.  The Red Sox won 98 games that year, and the first place Yankees won 101.  But the Red Sox that season, post trade deadline, went out West and killed opponents, solid opponents.  After winning 12 of 13 against various teams, they started playing the teams that resided out West, at home in Fenway.  3 against the Angels, 3 against the Rangers, then West for three against Oakland, four against Seattle.  They finished 10-3 over that stretch.  And went 20-2 from August 16th-September 18th.  Obviously the styles of play are different.  The Angels of course are notorious for "small ball" while the Red Sox "wait" around for the "long ball."  But that 2004 team had a dominant run, and now these 2008 Angels are experiencing a dominant! run as well. 

     Point being...when a team gets this hot, this late, it is kind of scary.     

     Very possible, and very likely.  I just started reading Joe Posnanski's blog, and I must say that it is, well, good. 

JoePosnanski

Benjamin: Lawernce, Kansas: Do you think there is any reason why Moore didn't trade Grudz or Mahay at the deadline? I heard there were big offers for Ron!!

 Rob Neyer: Not trading Mahay is simply indefensible.

     And Rob Neyer makes what I would call a "truly excellent point" in regards to the journeyman reliever.  I myself was exercising this very theory near the deadline.  My mind did not expand to words such as "indefensible," but nevertheless it would seem like a serious organizational mistake to hold onto a player like Mahay.  The Royals are waving from the shore as their transportation is heading out into the ocean, because they simply "missed the boat" on this one.

     Ron Mahay, a career WHIP of 1.386, posting arguably the best numbers of his career up on the wall during 2008, was held onto by a front office that should be focusing almost solely on the future, and a team that happens to be in fourth place as we speak.  And I should mention that fifth place is not all that far behind them.  They decide to hold onto Mahay, even though he is 37, which is the most important aspect in this situation.  And the fact that he throws between 50-70 innings a year, meaning he can only help the ballclub so much, another important aspect.  Wouldn't it have made much, much more sense to rid of him, and obtain anything, anything at all, that will help the team achieve future success.  I am not sure how much the Royals could have received had they moved him, but I entertain the notion, and logically, that they would have acquired something that can help them in moving forward. 

     These are considered missed opportunities for a team, a front office.  Ron Mahay was at his apex in terms of a "return," and the Royals let another chance slip through their grasp.  Take a note from Billy Beane, Kansas City Royals, relievers are overrated individually.  Especially ones that are 37 years old on a non-contending team.  Plenty of teams were looking to add bullpen help, and plenty of teams probably would have given up something decent to help the Royals.  But they held onto a pitcher that can only impact the team so much, and that SO MUCH is a very, very minimal amount. 

Jim Caple

     I know, very lame title to the post.  But what can I say?  I for one did not want to incur a "missed opportunity."  See:  Last post. 

     According to Keith Law, The Craig Hansen he has seen this season is not a "Big League" pitcher, and I cannot disagree.  However, Craig Hansen still has a nasty slider, and with the velocity on his fastball, I still think that he can salvage a "Big League" career.  Thrown into a pennant race, with his personal problems probably still lingering within his own mind, was probably not the best setting for Hansen to learn how to get "Big League" hitters out.  But now, he has an opportunity to work on his craft...for a few years, at least.

     The thing that is most promising about Craig Hansen, outside of his "stuff," is the fact that he is only a 24 year old pitcher.  And now this 24 year old pitcher moves to a place where winning just isn't as much as a "priority" as it was in Boston.  It is not that the Pirates organization does not want to win, it is just that realistically, they are not good enough to win, and I think this season they finally found a complete realization in this.  They moved their best player in Jason Bay, and they moved a player in Xavier Nady whose stock will never be higher than it is right now.  The return was nothing special, a bunch of solid prospects, some whose value is lower than it had been in the past because of the struggles they came across.  But they need solid players to surround stars, and if the organization builds a team, then it isn't unlikely that they could sign a few Good free agents once the base is built. 

     And that right there would be the definiton of the saying, "But I digress."  Back to Hansen...No pressure now.  Craig Hansen can pitch for a big league club and try to become the pitcher that all the scouts thought he could become.  He can work in situations where there is some pressure, but not the kind of pressure that costs the team a playoff spot.  And it doesn't hurt that the league itself is thought to contain a little less talent than that of the American League.  So, maybe, just maybe, Hansen can record a few more outs, build up a little confidence, and try and become a "Big League" pitcher.   

     Assuming Barry Bonds has been hitting the cage this season, or more accurately, this "offseason" for him, I am kind of thinking that someone not signing him was an opportunity missed.  Of course, I cannot mock a front office for not wanting to take in a player with the negative invisible surroundings that do in fact clearly surround Barry Bonds.  Bonds would bring more media to a team than most ever have, more criticism would be shrewn upon whomever were to be the "ink" on the other end of a Bonds contract.  But I also know that some teams desperately needed a corner outfielder, or a DH.  And Bonds was simply, and is simply, the cost of a very small amount of money.  Small amount for a baseball organization anyway. 

     This I truly believe.  After all Barry Bonds has been through, mostly due to his own actions.  He would be willing to put aside his ego, at least in the publics eye, in order to play for a few months on a contending team.  Some of his desire may be simply trying to prove that steroids weren't the reason he was so great.  If he came in for two months with the new testing program in place, and played well, then some may change their stance on him.  I for one think that Bonds would just welcome the opportunity to do what he has always done, play the game of baseball, even if it were only for another 150 plate appearences or so.

     Some see a clubhouse disaster when Barry Bonds' name lingers around in the media in whichever given city, I see an opportunity, a business opportunity, for a team in need.  I don't blame the ones who are skeptical of Bonds being acquired, but I think that he would just play the game if he were signed for the remaining games in a season that is closing out a little faster than I want it to. 

     I kept saying to coworkers that if Manny were to be traded, then Bonds would be the best option to take his place.  I know, I know, no need to replace one cancer with another.  But again I state, I don't think Bonds would be much of a cancer for the final two months.  Little did I know that Theo could bring back a good player like Jason Bay, because at the time when discussions were with the Florida Marlins, I was under the impression that Theo would just obtain some more prospects to deepen the aready deep Farm system, and all but give away the current season. 

     But the thing about Bonds is that if he does wrong, if he becomes a distraction, then the team could simply tell him to walk.  There are no long term repercussions, there are no financial obligations that would matter to a ballclub, whatever ballclub, with so much money.  And for a team like the New York Mets, rather than entertaining the likes of acquiring a player like Raul Ibanez, could have had Barry Bonds for free. 

     I mean maybe I am in the minority here, maybe some will call me crazy thinking that Bonds could stay under control of his gigantic, selfish ego, more selfish than that of most.  But I am a believer that Barry Bonds would want to play a few months, and walk away from the game feeling a little better about what just happened, what just transpired.  Call me crazy, call me whatever, these are just my views.   

     Angels:  OPS+ 91.  ERA+ 109.  Am I the only one who doesn't think that the Angels are the best team in baseball?  Just one day after they swept the Red Sox?  The Angels have good pitching, and absolutely no one is doubting that.  But their offense is pretty weak for the supposed "Best Team in Baseball."  If they end up making a deal for a serious bat, then my view of them will change.  But right now they have a well below average offense.  The OPS+ of 91 indicates that (That OPS+ comes in 12th in the AL), and the fact that they are tenth in the league in runs per game doesn't help their cause any.  Yes, they play small ball, kind of exciting in its own right.  Yet small ball isn't translating into runs being scored consistently.  The fact that they are one of the best at manufacturing a run in a tight ball game helps, but I will take an offense built around the home run any day of the week if it is among the best in the league.  With the pitching the Angels have they do not need a great offense, but it has to be better than this.  Luckily for them, they play in a weak division and will be able to rest anyone with an ache or even a hiccup down the stretch.

     Oakland A's:  OPS+ 93.  ERA+ 112.  The A's were in the mix, but unloaded some of their key parts.  And they did exactly what they should have done.  I didn't feel that Oakland had enough as they stood, though they have been proving me wrong all year, and their run differential disagrees with me.  However, I was still confident that they would fade out of playoff contention.  And any time a team has a fragile arm stay healthy, even for just a small amount of time, then get whatever you can for him.  Rich Harden has great stuff, some of the best in the game.  But they had to do it.  Build for the next few seasons.  If one were to ask another:  Who is the best general manager in the game of baseball?  Then it would be difficult to spout out anyone other than Billy Beane.  Any answer in that situation is far from definite, as there are so many variables that go into a team's success and/or failures.  But tell me someone else and I will make a very, very strong case for why Beane is better.  Simply put, he knows what he is doing.

.....By the way, whoever it was that suggested trading away Justin Duchscherer.  Seems like a pretty good idea to me.  Duchscherer, is having a very, very good year.  But does anyone truly think that he is this good?  If the right package comes along, then pull the trigger.  But of course, I think Beane has probably already thought about this.

     Texas Rangers:  OPS+ 115.  ERA+ 80.  Milton Bradley, Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton?  Some good offensive players.  Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Sidney Ponson, Jason Jennings?  Some bad veteran pitchers that have taken the mound quite a bit, 53 starts to be exact.  The Rangers current staff is terrible.  Kason Gabbard, while still young, was projected by Keith Law to be nothing more than a fifth starter.  And that is what he seems destined to become.  I want him to succeed, it just does not look likely.  However, I will always remember last season when I watched him pitch a complete game against the Royals while striking out what I believe was 10 batters.  That was enjoyable.  But they have some catching depth, and there are some teams that need catchers.  And if they could could get a nice return on Milton Bradley, who is actually an everyday player this season, then it may be smart to get some young pitching in return for him. 

     Seattle Mariners:  OPS+ 88.  ERA+ 92.  Well, I guess the stat guys were right about this team.  See, if listened to, the sabermetricians have some valuable information to flood our minds with.  The fact that the Mariners won 88 games or whatever last season, plus Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva, gave us a reason to include them in the discussion for who wins the West.  But I came to the realization that my prediction for them to win 86 games was plenty.  After all, they weren't all that good last season.  And although that 1-2 punch is really talented, it just didn't seem like enough.  However, I was still very wrong and ended up giving this team way too much credit.  We can make a very strong case that Kenji Johjima did not deserve all that money.  But did anyone think he would be as bad as he has been at the plate this season?  OPS+ 48.  I doubt they did.  There are many more problems with this team than just he, but he is a good example.  That and the fact that their run differential really was "a good indication" of the quality of team that they fielded last year. 

     This division is far from over.  But...it is over.  The Angels, though lacking offense, are the best team in this division, and still one of the best in the game, regardless of how I sounded when describing them.  The A's will be good in a few years, I assume.  The Rangers should be better too, once the prospects they have turn into Major League ballplayers.  The Mariners are in the worst position.  They have overpayed, underperforming, aging everyday players.  Sell, Sell, Sell, Seattle.    

     Will someone please show us that they are the best in this division?  Three teams are separated by just 1.5 games, and the fourth place team might be better than the second place team. 

     Philadelphia Phillies:  OPS+ 105.  ERA+ 112.  Isn't it funny how the Phillies pitching has out performed its hitting/defense?  They have only had three above average offensive players this season; Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell.  Jimmy Rollins has been average, and hurt a little.  Pedro Feliz has been a little below average, but they should have expected that.  And everyone else has been pretty bad, outside of Jayson Werth.  And a catcher with an OPS+ of 50 (Carlos Ruiz) isn't helping the cause.  His slugging percentage, in a clear, naked eye clear, hitters park, is lower than Julio Lugo's batting average.  The pitching has its weaknesses too, which hopes to have Joe Blanton turn out to be the solution (possibly doubtful, but he can't be worse than Adam Eaton or Brett Myers have been).  To speak of Blanton for a second...He overachieved last season, simply put.  Even Keith Law agrees.  But he is moving to a weaker league...But he is moving to a hitters park...Who knows what they get out of the struggling Blanton, but he is not a big time acquisition.  He just helps a little. 

     New York Mets:  OPS+  105.  ERA+ 101.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets end up in the postseason.  After all, I thought they would do so before the season began.  But I would be surprised if they did much once they got there.  Because they need a few bats.  Beltran, Wright, and Reyes are all playing well, but they really need that corner OF bat if they want to do any damage.  And my solution is Barry Bonds.  I understand where Bonds detractors are coming from.  I understand that Bonds isn't going to be the most positive influence on the rest of the organization.  However, after all Bonds has been through, most justified, and I am sure some of it not, his only asking price is dollar signs.  And I could very well see Bonds coming in and trying to stay cool to revamp what the public sees in him as his career winds down.  And I am sure, no matter how arrogant Bonds is, that he would like a World Series ring.  Now, I do not know how he would perform, but I have a strong feeling that he would still get on base a ton.  But if they don't choose that route, the Mets could find a lesser bat through a trade.  Another starter wouldn't hurt either. 

     Florida Marlins:  OPS+ 109.  ERA+ 88.  Say what you want about Run Differential, but I wouldn't be entirely confident in the quality of team that the Marlins actually have.  They may be just 1.5 games out, but they aren't that good of a team.  If we want to talk best middle infield, then definitely maybe.  But this team isn't as good as they appear.  A pretty good offense, and not so good pitching.  The front office should focus more so on the next few years, while the players should continue to play as hard as possible, just because they might as well try to win it all.  I don't see any other way.

     Atlanta Braves:  OPS+ 107.  ERA+ 109.  Losing John Smoltz really hurt this team.  They are probably a stronger team than their record indicates, but without Smoltz they have another hole.  It looks as if they should trade Tex if the right offer is on the table, because if they aren't going to re-sign him, then they will just get a couple draft picks, which may or may not amount to anything of value.  Draft picks are nice, but prospects are better.  But they should hang onto until midnight of the trade deadline to see if they get hot...

     Washington Nationals:  OPS+ 83.  ERA+ 97.  I remember the first night of the season.  Braves and the Nationals, battling it out to see who could stay undefeated.  A healthy Nick Johnson.  A brand new hi-tech stadium.  And the Nationals "star" player hits a walk off home run to push their record to 1-0.  I watched it, so I know it happened.  Since then they have been the worst team in baseball.  Nick Johnson renewed his spot on the "All DL team."  And Ryan Zimmerman has only played in 50 games.  I feel bad for the franchise, I really do.  I wanted them to do well this season.  That night would have been a magical night had I been a Nationals fan.  But they have fallen back into old habits, and those habits seem to be a reality for a few more years, at least.  But every team has a solution if they want to be competitive and if they want to compete next year.  They sign Ben Sheets, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and Erik Bedard.  Sure they will spend loads of money, but then they won't be the laughingstock that they are now.  :)      

     The NL Central has exceeded our expectations.  Mostly because of the Cardinals.  What they have accomplished is truly incredible.  The top two teams have improved themselves by upgrading the front end of the rotation.  Onto the synopses...

     Chicago Cubs:  OPS+ 112.  ERA+ 115.  It is difficult to argue against the Cubs being the best team in the NL after their recent acquisition of the fragile Rich Harden.  But if Harden's fragility disappears for three months or so, they are in prime position to pounce on the inferior National League.  That being said, I don't feel that they are so far and above a few other teams in the NL that they are locks to appear in the World Series.  Ryan Dempster has been a huge surprise this season moving into the rotation.  Zambrano is having another good year.  And with an average Ted Lilly, and a few other average arms, they should be set.  As soon as Soriano returns, then their offense will be set too.  Enough with the Brian Roberts talks, Mark Derosa is sufficient enough.  But then again the "Friendly Confines" have been pretty friendly to him.  So, trading away the rest of the farm to acquire Roberts may not be a bad idea.

      St Louis Cardinals:  OPS+ 113.  ERA+ 100.  I do not expect the Cardinals to hang around.  Finish with a +.500 winning percentage?  Yes.  But only by a few games.  But then again, in the NL, I guess that would mean they will be hanging around in the Wild Card race.  Give credit to everyone involved in this organization though, they are not the laughingstock many of us thought they would be.  And Albert Pujols, may or may not be my midseason MVP, it is close, but he is still as good as anyone in the game.  But the run differential in St Louis is far from convincing me that they are truly a good team.  More an above average than anything. 

      Milwaukee Brewers:  OPS+ 106.  ERA+ 106.  Grabbing one of the best pitchers in baseball, and combining him with one of the best pitchers in baseball, gives the Brewers arguably the best 1-2 punch...in baseball.  Sabathia has really taken off in the past few months and is right back to where he was last season.  Keith Law even feels that Sabathia, right now, is pitching better than he ever has.  And Ben Sheets' talent was realized in the All Star game.  Not many casual fans think of him as being one of the best pitchers in the game, but he is...when healthy.  Healthy has "Ben" Sheets' only issue.  As we all know, Bill Hall, and Rickie Weeks especially, are not playing up to their talent level.  If they do so, we may be able to expect a seven game NLCS between the Cubs and Brewers.  And by the way, the Brewers +21 RD is nothing special, but after getting CC, it should improve. 

     Cincinnati Reds:  OPS+ 96.  ERA+ 100.  Many, myself included, thought the Reds could make a run this season.  But at this point they become sellers in my opinion.  Even with Edinson Volquez pitching better than anyone could have ever expected, they have a pretty cruddy run differential of -51.  They should trade Adam Dunn.  And if possible they should trade Griffey.  The future is where it's at in Cincy.  The Cueto's, The Votto's, The Bruce's, The Volquez's, and possibly even The Bailey's.  They are what this team should rely on.  Even Harang is only 30.  So he potentially has many positive seasons left.  This team needs to build for 2009 and beyond.  Oh, and possibly find another manager.  I know the sabermetric minds dislike Dusty, and the other minds seem to like him, but I don't think he is a bad manager.  Just not necessarily a "Win-Later" manager.

     Houston Astros:  OPS+ 97.  ERA+ 91.  If Ed Wade is not the worst GM in baseball, then it is close.  There is one pitcher under the age of 30 in his starting rotation, and he is 29.  There are three starting position players under the age of 30.  This team is no man's land.  Some good players; Berkman, Lee, Oswalt, Tejada somewhat.  But they aren't going to win now.  Their run differential isn't good.  They cannot make a move to help them compete this year, and their farm is almost non-existent.  So...revamp the system and start over.  Well, unless of course they are going to fork over a total of $60 million a year for the next five seasons for the rights to Sabathia, Sheets, and Tex.  And that isn't going to happen.

     Pittsburgh Pirates:  OPS+ 101.  ERA+ 80.  Run Differential is -73.  They are once again one of the worst teams in baseball.  Yet, Jason Bay is back on track.  Xavier Nady is having a career year.  Nate Mclouth is performing better than expected.  But Gorzellany and Snell have been absolutely putrid, pathetic, terrible.  Maybe a new pitching coach is required in the Steel city, because these pitchers have digressed at a ridiculous rate...when they are supposed to be getting better.  

     The Central is top heavy, definitely.  And the Cubs and the Brewers are serious contenders this season.  But the Cubs are still a step ahead of their division rival.  However, CC and Sheets is an almost unhittable combination if one were to cross them in the postseason.  That is if Sheets does well his first time there, and if CC can do well this time around.       

    The NL West has been a pathetic division this season up until the midway point, and a little beyond that.  This of course is one of the downsides to the Wild Card.  Teams that are par or subpar will have a chance because there are three divsions in each league giving a few more spots to slightly inferior teams than in the past.  And in the supposedly weaker league, that is even more stressed because the quality of the teams are even worse, or the majority of them anyway.

     Arizona Diamondbacks:  OPS+ 92.  ERA+ 115.  They cannot complain about the 1-2 punch that they have.  Although Webb has come down to earth, Haren has been as good as advertised.  I saw some of it myself when he dominated the Red Sox at Fenway on a nationally televised game.  But then again, Haren isn't new to me, he is new to them.  The offense has been below average, a problem for any team.  The fact that their leadoff hitter rarely reaches base could be a small part of it.  And I realize that Chris Young has been moved down in the order, but now Stephen Drew is getting on base at only a .302 clip.  Something has to change.  I think that, maybe unfairly because he is only 20, Justin Upton has the biggest chance to get this offense going.  Upton has been average this season, and of course is only 20, but he seems like he has the most potential to take off in the second half of the year.  This team may very much need to acquire a bat at the deadline.  As for the pitching it has been very good.  ERA+ 115.  But that was expected.  Their run differential is +4 and they are 47-48.  They have been merely average.

     Los Angeles Dodgers:  OPS+ 86.  ERA+ 120.   Personally, I thought the Dodgers could win this division, and I picked them to do just that.  And they still have a very good shot, sitting just one game out.  But it is the quality of the team that concerns me, and I am sure their fans even more so.  They are below .500.  They do have a +10 run differential, but that doesn't normally translate into much better than an average record anyway.  The offense here has been well below average, and the pitching well above.  From the looks of things the pitching will not be going anywhere, but what about the hitting?  I don't see many significant internal solutions.  What's funny is that everyone, well the sabermetrics guys anyway, wanted the young guys to start.  And they have been around average, not much more can be expected.  The vets have been bad though.  Pierre and Kent have hit well below average, while Furcal has been hurt, same for Nomar.  I agreed with this opinion of starting the youngsters by the way.  I don't see the offense doing too much better in the 2nd half, unless I am overlooking something.  I mean really it is going to take Nomar, Kent, and Jones to start hitting.  Is that realistic? 

     San Francisco Giants:  OPS+ 89.  ERA+ 99.  They are far from good, but they are also far from what some expected them to be.  A -58 run differential is still pretty bad, but at least they are hanging around (7 games back) if not at least for the fans sake.  In most divisions they would be way, way back though, and the fact that they are still somewhat in it is because of the quality of, or lack of, the teams above them.  But they have some nice pitching for the future...at least. 

     Colorado Rockies:  OPS+ 95.  ERA+ 93.  I wrote a blog yesterday about how terrible they have been on the road with their bats sitting seemingly on their shoulders.  Julio Lugo about sums up their road numbers.  Very disappointing.  From World Series to the nicest room in the basement.  Luckily 8.5 games isn't exactly impossible to make up.  Unlikely, yes.  But not impossible.  Losing a solid SS, even though he was struggling, didn't exactly help the cause.  But even with him they would still be below .500 and out of first place.  A below average offense and a below average pitching staff is what they have, and that is why they are where they are. 

     San Diego Padres:  OPS+ 96.  ERA+ 92.  Brian Giles needs to go.  And a few other moves need to take place also.  Giles has been above average, but maybe a move to the Mets would be smart.  The Mets need a corner OF and the Padres shouldn't expect too much in return for the 37 year old Giles.  But the Padres need to go ahead and build for 2010.  Maddux needs to go, along with Randy Wolf.  But of course the underrated Adrian Gonzalez is having a very good year, the lone star in this lineup. 

     To sum it up;  if either of the top two teams makes a move for an impact bat, then they should be able to take the division.  If I am the Diamondbacks, with that 1-2 punch, then I make a move.  Because come playoff time they would have an advantage, much more so if they get another player who knows how to hit.  The Dodgers on the other hand, may want to hold onto their young players, because they have the money to make a splash in free agency next year.  They could wait until the offseason, rid of some of the overpaid vets, and keep their prospects, while signing a big time hitter.  Of course, it will be difficult to move a player like Andruw Jones, so I wouldn't mind if they made a move or a bat either.    

     From a GM's perspective, evaluating a Colorado player is truly a rocky and difficult task.  All I can say is; be wary of acquring a Rockies' hitter at the deadline.  And be cautious also of what young promising prospects that may be dealt in order to get whoever is chosen. 

     Humidors or not, the Rockies are a much better offensive team at home, as they have been for many years now.  I wrote about this last season, but it is continuing in 2008 also.  The Colorado Rockies Home OPS is .825, second to only the Cubs of the 16 NL teams.  This OPS translates into the second most runs per game also, behind the Cubs once again.  But on the road they are terrible...Again!.  They fall in at 15th in Road OPS (.665), ahead of only the Arizona Diamondbacks.  And the Rockies are actually dead last in runs per game on the road with a miserable 3.53 runs a game.  Basically, the Rockies on the road have the same OPS that Julio Lugo's has averaged out to be during the first two years of his contract with the Red Sox.   

     But it gets even more interesting...The pitchers are performing close, in both their home and road numbers, for the second straight season.  At home they have given up 5.15 runs/game.  But on the road they have given up even more, 5.37.  Either way their pitching has been terrible, but that is beside the point right now.  There isn't too much of a difference between the splits. 

     So what exactly are the humidors doing?  

     Let me take Matt Holliday and use him as an example, since he will be the most sought after position player.  In Matt Holliday's career at home his line looks like this:  .364/.427/.659.  That is great.  Those numbers are easily worthy of the Hall of Fame.  But on the road he has been a completely different hitter.  Line:  .277/.342/.450.  That is solid but far from special.  And in the past two years he has still been putting up great numbers in Colorado, but his numbers on the road have increased as well.  Yet the splits are still over a difference 150 percentage points of OPS 

     So I admit, Matt Holliday may be a wise choice, but if I were a GM then I would make sure that I am not sacrificing the future for a player like him.  But as a team, they are tremendous at home, and terrible on the road.  Do they have some elaborate sign stealing scheme with cameras and satellites involved?  I don't actually buy that.  What I actually buy though, is that the thin air still dictates how well the ball travels in Colorado, to some degree anyway.  And acquiring Matt Holliday may very well help a team improve themselves in the short term, but I wouldn't necessarily expect to be getting an MVP candidate either.  After all, scouts said Holliday may have trouble adjusting to the tougher competition in the AL if he were to switch leagues.  That is another reason to believe the humidors are not exactly what people may think they are.